By 2030, 9 million students are expected to be studying overseas, with China and India leading the way.
According to recent data from Navitas Australia, an educational services provider, approximately six million students studied abroad in 2019, and this figure is expected to increase to more than nine…
According to recent data from Navitas Australia, an educational services provider, approximately six million students studied abroad in 2019, and this figure is expected to increase to more than nine million by 2030. This development indicates a consistent 4% increase anticipated over the following few years, as reported at the Australian International Education Conference (AIEC) in October 2024.China and India are still the top two countries for sending students abroad, however Nigeria also contributes a sizable amount. The regions with the largest projected growth in outbound student mobility are Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.A presentation titled "Global student flows: understanding the 'next' wave in international education" at the Australian International Education Conference (AIEC) 2024 included data-driven projections on the number of international students expected to attend over the following ten years. In the presentation, Navitas executives Jonathan Chew and Ethan Fogarty presented trends based on data from Oxford Economics and Unesco under the direction of Gabrielle Rolan, pro vice chancellor at the University of South Australia. Chew, Navitas’s chief insights officer, stated, “We’re seeing shifting patterns that could reshape the face of international education.”
Could India overtake China?
The question of whether India will surpass China as the primary supplier of international students is becoming more and more pressing as the demand for studying abroad in India continues to rise. Navitas's senior manager of government affairs, Fogarty, outlined the factors that might affect this change. “India’s population has surpassed China's, and its young adult demographic is also expanding. These elements alone support an upward trend in outbound mobility,” he added. India still has a long way to go in catching up to China in terms of outbound student enrollment. India currently lags behind China in terms of outbound study mobility, GDP per capita, and tertiary enrollment ratio. China maintains its lead due to its better developed educational system and stronger economy, but its future is still uncertain. According to Navitas, economic uncertainties and declining employment opportunities in China may influence more students to choose to study overseas.
Is Indian interest waning?
According to Navitas, academically motivated students who are less sensitive to tuition costs are increasingly drawn to the US, Canada, Australia, and the UK as a result of changes in immigration laws. Recent changes made by the Australian government, for instance, have changed the kinds of students who are interested in studying there. "This shift doesn’t imply waning interest in foreign qualifications from emerging markets, which is expected to continue growing. Instead, transnational education models, including branch campuses, exchange programmes, and flexible degree formats, are likely to gain traction. We’ll see more students pursuing globally recognised degrees without necessarily having to study entirely abroad,” said Navitas' Chew.
